Very Accurately Tabulated Oscar Odds

And by accurately tabulated, I mean that I just got up minutes ago and before I feel fully awake I will log my gut feelings of who the winners will be.

The tide has been turning away from One Battle After Another and toward Sinners as the Award season has professed, but has it been enough to get Sinners into pole position? It could go wither way, here's my hunch.

Best Picture - Sinners

Best Director - Paul Thomas Anderson

Actor - Michael B. Jordan

Actress - Jesse Buckley

Supporting Actor - Sean Penn

Supporting Actress - Amy Madigan

Animated Feature - K-Pop Demon Hunters

Casting - One Battle After Another

Cinematography - Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso

Costume Design - Frankenstein, Kate Hawley

Make Up & Hair Styling - Frankenstein, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey

Documentary Feature - Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Editing - One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen

International Feature - Sentimental Value

Music/Score - Sinners, Ludwig Goranson

Music/Original Song - Golden from K-Pop Demon Hunters

Production Design - Frankenstein, Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau

Sound - F1, Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta

Short Doc - All the Empty Rooms

Short Live Action - Two People Exchanging Saliva

Short Animated - Butterfly

Visual Effects - Avatar: Fire & Ash, Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

Writing/Adapted - One Battler After Another, PTA

Writing/Original - Sinners, Ryan Coogler

We've got charcuterie, steaks and mushrooms and chocolate bundt with artisanal ice cream and Toschi cherry syrup at the ready because unlike all the honorees, we get to eat today. I'm going to obsess over fashion as if there were no rumored threats about attacks on LA. Please enjoy yourselves, whatever you decide to do today!

Signing out, 

Your Oscar Glutton

Autumn

Viva Verdi!

Joy is too often absent from the aging process.

Movie: Viva Verdi!

Running Time: 1:17

Nominated for: Original Song

How I watched: Laemmle Theatre

When it had me: Italian Language

When it lost me: Some difficult editing

What systems does it challenge: Going quietly into that dark night

I had no idea what this movie was when I showed up. I only knew it was nominated for original song and it had some connection to Giuseppe Verdi. It turns out it is a documentary about a retirement home for musicians that was created by Giuseppe Verdi in Milan on 1902. 

What's great is seeing all of these aging artists still surrounded every day with the music and instruments that they feel passionate about. Most of them still perform and many of them teach young artist's in residence. All of them have a safe and wonderful home to help weather some of the difficulties of being elderly.

The editor struggled to group the footage of these characters into loose themes in order to try and tell a story. It isn't always successful. Some little segments were quite short and it jumped around quite a bit. But that's the problem of assembling docs; it isn't always neat and tidy.

I had big emotions watching this. On the way to the theatre, I was remembering that it was my Italian grandfather's birthday and I calculated that he would be 97 if this year if he were still here with us. That was before I knew this movie was about elderly Italians. When I saw a 98 year old italian man singing with joy, I kind of lost it. It made me thinking of all the additional years we could have had with him, aging and loving life. So it became an opportunity to process some grief, as well.

Which reminds me, have I told you about Mike Lisa? And what a great guy he was? He got me interested in film in the 1980s when he started recording every Humphrey Bogart and Cary Grant film for me on his Betamax so I could watch them on the weekends. Happy Birthday, Pop.

Reflections on the nominees: Centering Empathy

Here we all are. Consuming stories, learning about ourselves.

As I look back on all the films I've watched this Awards Season, I can't stop thinking about the importance of the movie It Was Just An Accident. Maybe that's only because it is the last film I watched, but maybe it's because that movie is asking so many questions that matter deeply.

If I hurt someone, am I responsible for the injury? Do I have a moral duty to feel something for another human being? Can I feel empathy for someone who has caused me deliberate harm? What does it do to me if I deny myself empathy for others?

The director, Jafar Panahi, treats his characters with tenderness, even the ones it is hard to identify with. One character who has caused great pain for others says he did it because, "I thought you were humiliating me, like when I was little." I wonder if there are any ICE agents who aren't acting out that very same pattern?

He demonstrates for us that given one set of circumstances we can view a person as wholly evil and without value but given a different set of circumstances that person can suddenly become someone to whom we instinctively offer care and aid.

What's crazy to think about is that whether we view them as the former or the latter is, in most cases, a choice we get to make. It isn't always an easy choice but we do have control.

Empathy shows up in a big way in a lot of the films this year. Hamnet is dripping with compassion for its central family. Sentimental Value treats all of its characters with this kind of deep care, seeking not to vilify but to see clearly and accept. Sirat is so gentle in presenting its core group of seekers. Kokuho depicts a long and contentious struggle for control between two characters whose points of view are given equal, time, care and attention.

The three horror films in the mix are of particular interest to me. This is a genre that rarely traffics in empathy. If there is ever a time when you cannot afford to choose compassion it is when someone is actively trying to kill you. However Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein's Creature is afforded radical humanity compared to other versions the same story. 

Because of the storytelling style in Weapons, many of the film's victims are given a point of view and goals we can relate to instead of just being placeholders for an eventual body count. Sinners likewise expends the time necessary to identify deeply with all its characters before the monster descends on them. Even then, the villain expresses something very like deep empathy and asks for it in return; like Frankenstein's Creature, he didn't ask to be a monster, it was just an accident.

There are also films heavy on apathy. Bugonia is all about not seeing inherent value in another, but prejudging them and going to extremes to avoid changing that opinion under any circumstance. Marty Supreme is apathetic to everyone in his life; never considering their humanity but viewing them all as a means to an end. F1 doesn't show empathy or ask for it; winning is the only goal here, there's no room for connection beyond that. One Battle After Another centers on a kind of ongoing war, where empathy is completely out of place. The main characters are treated with compassion but it's a shallow offering. Even the villains in One Battle are not convincingly passionate; they are silly, emotionless and nonsensical (not to say they were unconvincing...they were more terrifying because they did feel real.)

Movies are fun because you can try on another life, another reality. You can watch the protagonists on the screen and ask yourself what you would do in their shoes, imagine your own choices and how they might measure up. And of course, there's room for all kinds of movies; from deep thinkers to shallow romps to complete head-scratchers. This year the film makers all seem to be asking us how empathy can change things or conversely, what results will we see in the absence of it?  I feel very grateful to Jafar Panahi for inviting us into such a stark look at humanity that can help us to examine our own choices with a little more clarity.

It Was Just An Accident

The whole movie was shot illegally in Iran.

Movie: It Was Just An Accident

Running Time: 1:43

Nominated for: International Feature, Original Screenplay

How I watched: Hulu

When it had me: Rash Decisions

When it lost me: Not a bit

What systems does it challenge: Authoritarianism, Religious Extremism

It Was Just an Accident plays like a comedy of errors, only it's lighter in the comedy and heavier on the errors. A man accidentally runs into someone who was his torturer when he was a in political prison, and decides impulsively to detain him. From there on there is an undeniable forward motion that sweeps these characters and many more along on a very uncertain path.

I love a movie where good people are caught up making bad choices and getting in over their heads. It makes me so invested and amused in equal measure.

At times it has the tone of a light romp but the more you learn about the pain that these characters have endured, the more grounded it becomes. In the end it feels like it brings into focus the beautiful/horrible contradiction of humanity. The film arcs from apathy to empathy and that journey may be the most important one that we can consider right now.

The human experience is pretty universal and it is only through the accident of circumstance that we set out to hurt and destroy one another. What a terrible tragedy we are. And what a powerful film to capture that!

Director Jafar Panahi lives under threat of arrest and worse at the hands of the Iranian government. (Of course that regime has been mostly murdered by US and Israeli forces, so who knows if that situation will change.) This film is based in part on his own experiences in detention for illegal propaganda against the regime. Brave film making, to say the least.

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

The preparation to be a soldier starts so young!

Movie: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Running Time: 1:30

Nominated for: Documentary Feature

How I watched: Apple TV

When it had me: From the drop

When it lost me: Never

What systems does it challenge: Authoritarianism and Propaganda

Mr. Nobody Against Putin begins with a Russian citizen receiving instructions for how to safely leave the country and I found it completely gripping. Pasha is an events organizer, teacher and AV club leader at a school in the Ural Mountains of Russia. He loves his job and giving the students spaces to feel free to express themselves and build community.

After Russia's war with Ukraine begins, the federal government implements new rules. Pasha then documents the changes to culture and community under the new policies designed to indoctrinate students with alternate histories, illicit undying loyalty for the mother land and ultimately prepare children for military service. He loathes his new role as propagandist and must find a way to express dissent and rebel.

This was a riveting glimpse into Russian life and political climate. Russia is pretty good at controlling all messaging so to see this is rare and illuminating.

It was also horrifying to see the road America could go down. Trump has always been an open fan of Putin and remarked how he would like to do things more like the dictator. How will our teachers, community leaders and citizens respond to these kinds of tactics if the fascist regime were to continue unchecked into the future? At what point would I leave, also realizing that not everyone can leave? Some will have to stay and endure.

I felt this film in my gut and lungs as I paid close attention, wanting everything to work and knowing there would be consequences. This was powerful film making from an extremely relatable and inspiring individual.

Oscar Nominated Shorts

These are Oscar Shorts. You can download a PDF pattern if you like.

OSCAR NOMINATED SHORTS

Fitting all of these in made for a tough weekend. I feel like I used to love catching these screenings but it felt more like a slog this year. I don't know if I didn't connect as well with what new film makers are putting out or if I just wasn't in the right frame of mind.

Maybe the problem is I used to have a theatre just a few minutes from my house that played all of these but now I have to drive to Glendale and Burbank and this weekend the freeway interchange to Burbank was closed. It just all felt like a LOT of effort. Maybe the quickening of America's descent into autocracy is weighing on my mind. It's all guesswork at this point.

They said these were presented by Taika Waititi but he never showed up in the theatre, either live or on screen. How did he present them? Did he donate money or something? Very mysterious. Anyway...

DOCUMENTARY-

All the Empty Rooms - Steve Hartman was a journalist who often tried to offer something positive in the wake of a mass shooting; a story about a hero or a survivor or something optimistic. Until he realized he was part of a system that was helping society adjust to the aftermath rather than seek a change. Next he took on a project to document the empty rooms of school children who had died as a result of gun violence in schools. This is about that. It's deeply moving and well produced.

Armed Only With A Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud - Here we learn about Brent Renaud, an american photojournalist who has gone to all of the most dangerous frontlines and neighborhoods to document the worst tragedies that humanity faces. His family struggles with his loss in the Ukraine. It's tragic and feels important to witness.

Children No More: Was and Are Gone - This was a fascinating look at an Isreali group protesting the deaths of more than 18,000 children in Gaza. I'm afraid to protest this issue here in America because of the vehement and rageful attacks that come from those who support the current Israeli government and their campaign of destruction. Watching their brave and careful approach was nerve-racking and inspirational. It's powerfully put together.

The Devil is Busy - There is an abortion clinic in Atlanta that is still operational and tries to help clients from all over the country that can't get the care they need in their home states. This doc follows the manager of the place and her careful attention to both the security and the humanity of all the staff and guests. I can't tell you how beautiful it is to see someone making the choice to see everyone as human - even the protestors outside. I want to hug that woman. I found the whole piece riveting.

Perfectly A Strangeness - My absolute favorite! This movie features three perfect donkeys that walk around an observatory. Stunning cinematography of them ambling, eating and generally vibing in their mountain locale. At night, you can see the telescopes open up and some gorgeous footage of all the stars and the milk way. The whole thing feels like a poem, comparing the cosmos to a donkey's eye. I found it calming and lovely and I wanted it to go on.

LIVE ACTION-

Butcher's Stain - The butcher in this short is Palestinian and working in Israel. After he posts pictures of Gazan children who have been murdered a colleague turns him in for tearing down pictures of the hostages, which he didn't really do. The emotional beats in the story didn't always feel earned. 

A Friend of Dorothy - An adorable friendship between an aging fan of the theatre and a neighborhood teen. These plot points were sometimes unmotivated and the overall story felt oversimplified even though the acting was great from the two leads.

Jane Austen's Period Drama - The comedy of the lot and such a welcome break! With perfect Downton Abbey charm, a man kneels to propose only to find his beloved's dress dripping with her menstrual blood. Then it's a race to try and figure out how to do damage control over the whole situation. It's super silly, packed with jokes and very enjoyable. It's also shot beautifully shot and well produced.

The Singers - This is a grainy, gritty dark look inside a sad bar. One guy can't afford his beer and so decides to start a singing contest. There follows a bunch of surprising songs. It's cute but also just feels pretty superficial.

Two People Exchanging Saliva - A super weird piece about a world where people are not allowed to kiss. They also pay for things by receiving slaps across the face? It's absurd and sort of inscrutable. It was shot well but left me confused.

ANIMATION-

Butterfly - A swimmer who faces discrimination and worse. The animation style looked like a painting; maybe in the style of Diego Rivera? It did not hold my attention.

Forevergreen - This was a super cute story about the relationship between a family of bears and a tree in the forest. The characters looked as if they were carved. 

The Girl Who Cried Pearls - Very creepy stop motion puppets that had unhealthy looking faces and whose mouths didn't move with the dialog. It has a lesson about value. It wasn't my cup of tea.

Retirement Plan - A funny look at all the things we put off until later in life when we are less busy; exercise, hobbies, travel, organization, improvements. A lesson to live for today. I liked the relatability.

The Three Sisters - Three women share an island with meager resources until a man moves in and they try to share him. Does not go well. It was amusing but felt vaguely misogynistic. 

The runner up animated short they shared was my favorite of the night. It was a called Eiru and it was about nature forcing people to be better. It had really striking animation but anyway, that one's not nominated. I wish Taika had shown up and explained why.

Elio

This movie is very purple-y.

Movie: Elio

Running Time: 1:39

Nominated for: Animated Feature

How I watched: Disney+

When it had me: Attempted Alien Abduction

When it lost me: It was cute but kind of rolled off of me

What systems does it challenge: Conformity, Isolation

Elio is kind of heart breaking. This kid just wants to belong but his parents are...well, it's a Disney movie, so you know. His adoptive parent is so overwhelmed and HAS NO VILLAGE. seriously, why does a village not immediately organize itself around this kid's needs? Come on, people!

But Elio is smart and industrious and finds his own way to seek out a community and belonging and even service to something greater. The animation is great, the world is imaginative and the characters are fun. It's a super solid movie.

I also watched it very recently and had a hard time remembering anything about it when I sat down to write this just now, so I feel like that kind of says something too.